The current reading of 100.6 for the barometer index is above the quarterly trade volume index but only slightly above the baseline value of 100 for both indices. This suggests that merchandise trade should continue to recover gradually in the early months of 2024, but any gains could be easily derailed by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The volume of world merchandise trade fell 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter and was down 2.5% compared to the same period in 2022. The steep year-on-year drop in the third quarter was mostly due to relatively strong growth in the first three quarters of 2022. Goods trade from January to October in 2023 has been mostly flat, with volume in the third quarter nearly unchanged since the start of the year and up just 3.2% over two years. These developments are more negative than the WTO’s most recent forecast of 5 October 2023, which predicted 0.8% growth in merchandise trade in 2023.
The barometer’s component indices are mostly neutral, with indicators of export orders (101.7) and air freight (102.3) rising slightly above trend while measures of container shipping (98.6) and raw materials trade (99.1) remaining slightly below trend. The index of automobile production and sales (106.3) remains well above trend, although it has lost momentum recently. Meanwhile, a seemingly sharp rebound in electronic components trade in the previous barometer has been revised away (95.6). Goods trade is expected to pick up in 2024 as it rebounds from below-average growth in 2023, but uncertainty remains high due to the prevalence of downside risks.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.
Further details on the methodology are contained in the technical note here.
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